Politics
Russia’s allies are evaporating one by one as the benefits of being Russia’s friend become more of a liability. Putin faces several problems on this front.
First, secondary sanctions are cutting off trade partners, even China, whose “eternal friendship” Putin was so keen on. When confronted with a choice between trading with the “West” or with Russia, the choice is easy for nearly every country except Iran and North Korea.
Second, Putin formed new alliances in his quest for a multi-polar world, but after two and a half years, these new partners have gotten to know Russia a little better and are rethinking their stance. Hungary is the lone standout in Europe, as even Slovakia’s Fico is selling weapons to Ukraine but putting on airs that he is “leaving it up to the private sector.”
Third, Russia has an extensive network of bribed politicians, from Mike Johnson and the MAGA wing to right-wing parties in Europe, dictators in Africa, and elsewhere. The problem is that politicians who can be bribed are always in it for themselves, and the benefits of Russian cash are fading away.
Fourth, Russia has failed to live up to commitments, including to defend Armenia from Azerbaijan as required by the CSTO Treaty, leading to Armenia starting the process to exit the organization that Russia started to compete with NATO. India is tired of delays and has noticed that Russian equipment doesn’t live up to the hype and has turned to the USA for defense acquisition.
Finally, Kim Jong Un is his last friend, but he is about to see the light. When (if) he sends his engineering battalion to Ukraine in the near future, he will expect something in return, but can Russia deliver? Is Russia going to supply precision munitions to North Korea while simultaneously sacrificing their use on the front in Ukraine while angering South Korea, which might further bolster Ukraine’s supply chain?
Dmitri Rogozin, former ambassador to NATO and former head of RosCosmos, posted the following on his Telegram channel. This is not some random blogger. He has been the “senator” from the partially-occupied Zaporizhzhia territory since September 2023.
Here he is with Putin and Lukashenko in 2022.
Just so we are clear. War with Russia is better than occupation, and there will be no ceasefire, no peace, no accessions, and no negotiations over territory.
Economics
After the fall of Gazprom and Norilsk Nickle's defection to China, what news now awaits Russia’s economy? Coal. According to Rosstat, net profits have been down 93% since January, and fewer than half of the coal-related companies, including mining and transport, are in the black. Cut off from Western customers, Russia turned elsewhere, but these countries aren’t willing to risk Western sanctions for Russian coal. As a sector, the coal business in Russia made 14.3 billion rubles in the first quarter of 2024, down from 193 billion last year.
Ukraine remains the world leader in climate change efforts, while Russia remains the world leader in supplying armored vehicles to Ukraine. Isn’t it nice how these things work out?
On the Front
Russians are fighting at the best processing plant in Verdyansk, which, upon first reading, I assume was a joke and that “meat processing plant” was just slang for a Russian trench, but in this case, they meant it literally.
Russian troops are short on water, and this is leading to outbreaks of typhoid and cholera, which the Russian command admitted in a Telegram message, recommending that Russian troops boil water before drinking it. Russian troops from along the Dnepr River in the south showed how to filter water twice using wet wipes and plastic bottles. Needless to say, this doesn’t work.
Oleksandr Bastrykin, head of the Investigative Committee of the RF (Russian FBI, kind of?), stated that while security forces “caught” 30,000 immigrants who received Russian citizenship, only 10,000 were sent to the front, suggesting that greater enforcement could find more recruits.
Losses on the front from Andrew Perpetua on Twitter. Lists are admittedly incomplete, as there are too many videos and not enough time. Russia lost 27 tanks, 23 artillery pieces, two Pantsir S-1, and a probable, but unlisted as of yet, S-500 — their newest air defense system that was allegedly (as of now) destroyed in Crimea. The cost of a single S-500 is estimated at $300,000,000 for the domestic version (export sells for twice that amount). Russia supposedly has four such systems in operation. Well, now three. But probably two because every Russian claim is exaggerated by 100%.
The majority of Ukrainian tank losses continue to be Soviet tanks, mostly T-64s that have been upgraded by Ukraine or their NATO partners, but one Abrams was damaged.
The Human Cost
“Ukraine, June, 2024.” a Russian shows a POV view (VERY GRAPHIC, DO NOT WATCH) of an area on the front. Partially decomposed Russian corpses litter the sides of the road. A burned-out BMP(?) blocks traffic, forcing vehicles to drive around. “How will we identify them? By badges? DNA? All of our brothers have died.” The area is next to a farmer’s road, wheat fields on one side, a narrow patch of forest on the other. “Someone’s father, someone’s brother, someone’s husband. Someone is waiting for them at home.” Someone has collected the firearms and put them in a pile. Land mines still sit under the grass, and he won’t move off the road. The bodies have been there for weeks.
Corruption Watch
Tatiana Shevtsova, one of Shoigu’s deputies, resigned a month ago, shortly before Shoigu was dismissed as Defense Minister. It is now rumored that she has fled to France, possibly seeking the protection of French intelligence.
Wagner in Africa
For all you “the global south supports Russia” people out there — enjoy your just desserts. Philip Obaji Jr. is telling the truth about Russian involvement in Africa. Philip Obaji Jr. is a Nigeria-based correspondent for The Daily Beast, covering sub-Saharan Africa. He won the Future Awards Africa Prize in Education in 2014 and the Future Awards Africa Prize for Young Person of the Year in 2015.
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If you think that Russia acts any differently in any other country, think again. They act this way in CAR, they act this way in Ukraine, and they act this way in Russia itself.
Pranks
Russian anti-war activists created an online profile of a “patriotic poet,” Russian anti-war activists created an online profile of a “patriotic poet” Gennady Rakitin, with an AI-generated image as an avatar. All of his posts were translations of the German Nazi poetry. His subscribers included more than a hundred politicians, members of parliament, Putin’s advisors on culture, prominent military bloggers, etc. Eventually, he was awarded a prize for the poetry — the German Nazi poetry, that is., with an AI-generated image as an avatar. All of his posts were translations of the German Nazi poetry. His subscribers included more than a hundred politicians, members of parliament, Putin’s advisors on culture, prominent military bloggers, etc. He was awarded a prize for the poetry — the German Nazi poetry. I guess at least one commenter on VK (Russian Facebook) caught on.
Atesh
Atesh conducted surveillance of Putin’s residence near Sochi and found one of the few air defense systems that hasn’t been moved to Ukraine yet. It is located near the A-147 highway not far south of Sochi, a traditionally Ukrainian city currently occupied by Russia.
The USSR published this map, titled “Overview of Ukrainian Lands,” prior to World War II. It clearly shows the traditional Ukrainian status of Sochi, Rostov, and much of what is currently occupied by Russia.
Here is Dylan’s Helpful Guide for Foreign Policy with Russia
Thank you for Reading!
I am in the process of moving—again. I’m 46 years old, and I’ve had 38 different addresses in my lifetime. I probably missed a few, and that doesn’t count the moving around we did every week or so for the first few weeks of the full-scale invasion. That’s only counting the addresses that I updated with my bank.
That said, I might be slow to publish in the coming weeks, as my desktop will be packed up, and editing things on a laptop or phone is difficult with these old eyes. You may have noticed the errors in my recent articles, and I apologize.